COVID-19: Personal and Commercial Lines Policy Transaction Index Report

Executive Summary

Analyzing more than 120 million data transactions, this special COVID-19 Index report measures the month-to-month volume of specific policy transaction types, like new policies, policy changes, policy cancellations and policy renewals for both personal commercial lines policies relative to transaction trends. Leveraging more than 32,000 agencies and 400 insurers and MGAs, this Index is reflective of the policy transaction trends being experienced by all agencies and insurers across the U.S. insurance market.

Key insights from the data include:

• Due to the impact of COVID, March and April personal and commercial lines transaction activity volume was down sharply, and significantly rebounded throughout May, as compared to the start of March.
• Personal Lines:
  • New policy transaction volume is down -15.8% at the end of May 2020 relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is 3.0 points higher than the end of May 2019.
  • Policy change transaction volume is up 1.6% at the end of May 2020 relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is 10 points higher than the same day in 2019.
  • Policy cancellation transaction volume is down -3.3% at the end of May 2020 relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is 1.3 points higher than the end of May 2019.
  • Policy renewal transaction volume is up 13.6% at the end of May, which is 19.6 points higher than the end of May 2019.
• Commercial Lines:
  • New policy transaction volume is down -38.9% at the end of May 2020 relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is down 22.0 points than the end of May 2019.
  • Policy change transaction volume is down -46.2% at the end of May 2020 relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is down 28.4 points than the same day in 2019.
  • Policy cancellation transaction volume is down -62.6% at the end of May 2020 relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is down 51.0 points than the end of May 2019.
  • Policy renewal transaction volume is down 21.4% at the end of May relative to the beginning of March 2020, which is 6.4 points higher than the end of May 2019.

Personal Lines Index

New Policy

New policy transaction volume bottomed out at -46.4% on April 13 compared to the start of March. Since that point, activity began to slowly rebound to -15.8% at the end of May. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -18.7%, which was -3.0 points lower than the same day in 2020.

Policy Change

Policy change transaction volume hit a low of -19.9% on April 1 compared to the start of March. Since that point, activity rebounded with a spike on May 7 at 3.1% and ended May at 1.6%. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -8.4%, which was -10.0 points lower than the same day in 2020.

Policy Cancellation

Policy cancellation transaction volume bottomed out at -18.3% on April 27 compared to the start of March. Since that point, activity was sporadic, peaking at -1.5% on May 19 and ended the month of May at -3.3% Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -4.6%, which was -1.3 points lower than the same day in 2020.

Policy Renewal

Unlike other personal lines transactions, policy renewal transaction was the only type with higher activity in 2020 vs. 2019. Activity hit a low at -11.3% on May 26 and rebounded to 13.6% at the end of May. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -6.1%, which was -19.6 points lower than the same day in 2020.

Commercial Lines Index

New Policy

New policy transaction volume hit a low of -80.8% on May 26 compared to the start of March. Since that point, activity rebounded and ended the month of May at -38.9%. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -16.9%, which was 22.0 points higher than the same day in 2020.

Policy Change

Policy change transaction volume hit a low of -67.9% on May 28 compared to the start of March. Activity rebounded and ended the month of May at -46.2%. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -17.8%, which was 28.4 points higher than the same day in 2020.

Policy Cancellation

Policy cancellation transaction volume has steadily decreased since the start of March, hitting a low at -97.9% on May 26. Activity began to rebound by the end of May, ending the month at -62.6%. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -11.6%, which was 51.0 points higher than the same day in 2020.

Policy Renewal

Policy renewal transaction volume experienced similar variability in 2020 as 2019 trends. Activity peaked at 5.4% on April 29, hit a low at -27.3% on May 29 and ended the month of May at -21.4%. Comparatively, at the end of May 2019, transaction volume was down -27.7%, which was -6.4 points lower than the same day in 2020.

*All data is indexed against March 1, 2020 and calculated on a seven-day moving average.

Industry Trends, 2020, Carriers, Agents, MGAs